Canada’s economy is galloping along at such a clip that Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge saw fit this past week to raise interest rates a quarter of a percentage point - again. It is the fourth increase in six months, bringing the prime rate for the chartered banks’ best customers up to 5.25 per cent, its highest level in 3 1/2 years.
为了抑制加拿大经济过热，加拿大央行行长David Dodge于一月宣布再次将利率提高25个基点,。这是央行六个月以来的连续第四次加息，与此同时，其它各大银行的最优惠贷款利率也同步提升至5.25％，达到过去3年半以来的最高水平。
Dodge says higher rates are needed to cool demand, hold the lid on inflation and address labour shortages in some parts of the country. And more rate hikes may be needed, he says, as the economy continues to grow. The bank now forecasts 3.1 per cent growth this year, a respectable rate but not a heart-stopping one.
Dodge表示，为了降低需求，遏制通货膨胀并且解决国内一些地区的劳动力缺乏问题，加息是必须的措施。他还表示，如果经济继续增长，央行可能不得不考虑继续加息。根据央行最新预测，加拿大2006年经济增长率为3.1%，虽然增幅比较可观，但还不至于惊心动魄。
That said, inflation is far from a problem, running at a moderate 2.2 per cent a year, slightly above the midpoint of the bank’s target range.
话虽如此，但实际上加拿大的通货膨胀年率仅为温和的2.2%，，仅仅稍高于央行的通货膨胀预测的中间值，因此大可不必为此担忧。
All of which invites the question: Will the latest hikes in the interest rate do more damage than good?
人们自然会引申出这样一个问题：最近的持续加息是否弊大于利？
They are hurting Canada’s manufacturing heartland. Autoworkers in Oshawa, pulp mill employees in Thunder Bay, and agriculture equipment makers in Woodstock have all received layoff notices in recent weeks.
加息对加拿大的制造业中心地带造成了强大冲击，Oshawa的汽车工厂，Thunder Bay的纸浆造纸厂，以及Woodstock的农业设备制造厂在最近几周都纷纷裁员。
While Canada’s resource-rich economy is reaping the benefits of a global boom in demand for things like oil and zinc, the spoils are not shared evenly across the country. In oil-rich Alberta, business is scrambling to keep up. However, in Ontario, business is struggling.
目前全球对石油和锌这样的自然资源需求旺盛，加拿大矿产资源丰富的地区从中受益 ，但这一繁荣却不是被全国所有的人平均分享的。在石油资源丰富的亚伯达省，生意继续热火朝天。而安大略却举步维艰。
It is a tale of two economies. Alberta-based Petro-Canada and Suncor Energy Inc. both reported record profits this week, while Ontario’s Celestica Inc. and Cott Corp. both recorded losses.
这是一个两个不同经济的故事。总部在亚伯达的Petro-Canada和Suncor Energy Inc在本周双双宣布创纪录的利润，而与此同时，坐落在安省的电子产品制造商Celestica Inc和汽水制造商Cott Corp则双双宣布亏损。
Faced with increased competition from lower-cost countries like China and India, many manufacturers already are having trouble passing on cost increases. And for exporters, higher interest rates deliver a double whammy. They mean higher borrowing costs and they make us less competitive with our major U.S. trading partner by driving up our dollar.
面对来自中国和印度等低成本产品越来越激烈的竞争，许多制造商都已经难以转嫁成本上涨。而对于出口商来说，提高利率更是雪上加霜，这将使他们的贷款成本增加，并且随着加元继续升高，加拿大对主要贸易伙伴国美国的出口竞争力将有所下降。
In just three years, manufacturers have seen the value of Canada’s dollar soar from 62 cents (U.S.) to nearly 87 cents - equivalent to a loss in competitiveness of 40 per cent. In the last year alone, the loonie is up 6 per cent. During that time Dodge raised interest rates a full percentage point.
最近三年来，加元对美元汇率持续上扬，从3年前的1加元兑换62美分，到现在兑87美分左右， 这相当于竞争力下降了40%。仅在去年一年，加元就累计上涨6%，在那段期间Dodge将利率提高了整整一个百分点。
Is it any wonder Canada lost 106,000 manufacturing jobs, half of them in Ontario, in the past 12 months? Another 80,000 to 100,000 could disappear this year, Canada’s manufacturers and exporters warn.
难怪在过去一年，加拿大制造业损失了106,000个职位，其中一半在安省。加拿大的制造商和出口商日前发出警告，今年制造业还将继续损失80,000到100,000个职位。
The most vulnerable sectors - automotive, pulp and paper, and consumer products - are disproportionately based in Central Canada.
加拿大最脆弱的行业，例如汽车业，纸浆造纸业，以及消费品制造业，几乎都集中在加拿大中部。
The problem of one country, two economies is not unique to us. Europe faces a similar dilemma. Portugal is booming, Germany is not.
一个国家两大经济支柱产业发展不均衡的问题并不仅仅出现在加拿大。欧洲也面临类似的窘境，葡萄牙经济热火朝天，而德国却死气沉沉。
No, Dodge can’t create two interest rates to serve the needs of one country. But his job is to balance regional needs. The bleeding of jobs in Ontario’s key manufacturing sector suggests it’s time for some rebalancing.
Dodge不可能制定两种贷款利率满足国内不同的需要。但他的职责就是平衡地方需求，安大略关键的制造业工作岗位大量流失应该提醒他，是做出一些调整的时候了。
编注：以上是2006年1月30日发表在加拿大最大的英文报纸－“多伦多星报”上的社论。大中报 理静、张舟编译。
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"反思加拿大的高贷款利率" was posted on Sunday, February 19th, 2006 at 3:50 pm.